Tag: Advanced Level

Is Gold worth Buying ? A shocking Study

Posted on by Jagoinvestor

To understand this Study, we have to go back to years when human civilization started. Surprised! But yes, lets go back to those times where human civilization just started. Those days, economic activity was bare minimum and there were few trades between humans. For example, if a farmer wanted to build a home, he used to give some quantity of grain to carpenter, plumber etc and that system was called BARTER SYSTEM. So goods itself were basically used as currency.

Economic activity grew and then emerged an alternative currency which was in the forms of coins and we had what is called ASHRAFIYA. We had gold, silver and copper coins which were used as currency and it was Emperor who used to control the currency system. Then economic activity picked up further and since there was a limitation to the amount of gold, silver and copper we had, Paper currency emerged and till date such currency is the main form by which we all trade. Though now-a-days, we are witnessing another form of currency which is called Plastic Card Currency/ Credit Currency which if not used judiciously, can be a disaster. In fact,the entire US came to a halt in 2008 as credit currency was mis-used to unimaginable extent.

Today also, each emperor (so called Government) produces and controls their own currency as DOLLOR, Rupee, Dinar etc. But internationally, gold still remains the purest form of currency as it cannot be manipulated. Now in paper currency world over, Dollar became the most acceptable currency as US economy is still the biggest and almost all countries trade with US. After US dollar, the most acceptable form of currency is GOLD. If you have gold and you are not carrying dollar, you can still buy items in any country of the world but you cannot do so with Indian Rupee. Hence, in economic terms, gold is a currency.

 

 

Gold in relation to Dollar

Gold is a recognized international currency and currently Dollar is the most recognized Paper Currency. Hence gold is valued in terms of Dollar and not in Rupee. Now if we go back in the history, in the year 1976-81, gold had a dream bull run. From $100 per ounce in 1976, it had gone as high as $850 per ounce. That rise took place as people feared that US economy would collapse and $ would have no value. That time, US was in war with Vietnam & then came Iranian Revolution – inflation in US was at very high levels and in a way, there was hyper-inflation.

Once the war was over and inflation eased out, Gold came crashing down. In the year 1990, it was $400 per ounce and in the year 2000, it was close to $250 per ounce. That means the effect of bubble was so big that even in 20 years, the gold could not recover its original price and was languishing at less than 1/3 of its peak price. So please don’t be surprised if you will be able to buy gold again at levels of Rs 10000-12000.

 

Gold Price Chart from 1975 to 2010

Now, Dow Jones was at 10000 in the year 2000 and today also it is at same levels. The US economy is in bad shape and in last 10-12 years, it has not really made any significant progress, rather its debt is so much so high, that there is a fear that US would only have to print further paper currency i.e., dollar either to repay the loan or to keep in the economy going. The moment any government print notes without significant growth in the economic activity, the currency loses its value because of high inflation as same quantity of goods and services are being chased by more money. Anyway, US government is printing billions of dollar just to keep the economy afloat.

 

So, the rise in Gold is happening on the background that the most recognizable international currency is loosing its value. If US economy further goes down and government there keeps printing notes, again gold may rise in dollar terms. Such fear exist, even in 1979-80. We don’t know what lies ahead as we are not astrologers.

Dollar in relation to Rupee

In the year 1980, $1 was equal to Rs.8 and today as we are writing this article, $1 = Rs.46. Dollar has appreciated more than 5½ times in last 30 years. In the year 1991, there was a time, when Indian government was literally bankrupt and they had to devalue INR more than 25% in just a single day, just to repay the debt we had. That was the time, India was liberalized and government opened their economy and allowed foreign companies to do businesses. Since then, India has grown dramatically. The fact of the matter is that in the year 1991, sensex was close to 1000 and today it is at 18000.

As Indian economy keeps rising and US economy keeps doing down or at the max stands where it is, the likelihood is that dollar should depreciate. In the year 2007, dollar had depreciated to as low as Rs.37.

Gold with relation to Rupee

Gold was Rs.1450/- in the year 1980 and today it is Rs.18800/-. The rise of 13 times in last 30 years @ 9% p.a. But 5½ times of such rise is on account for Rupee depreciation in terms of dollar. So if we were to analyse the rise in gold price in relation to rupee alone without taking dollar factor, it is only 2.35 times. You see, even in terms of dollar, gold has risen only 1.5 times in last 30 years.

What can happen in future?

As we have said, we are not astrologers, so we can’t predict future. Though we can give some options that may happen:

  1. If dollar in comparison to INR were to stay at the same level of 45-46, then there is a likelihood that gold may rise further.
  2. If due to the sheer strength of Indian Economy, dollar flows to India by way of FDI, FII etc continues, rupee would strengthen and that would mean that even if gold were to rise in dollar terms, it will still decline in rupee terms. In fact, as it happened from 1980 to 2000 that gold kept going down in dollar terms but since the rupee was depreciating in dollar terms, the gold kept rising in Rupee terms. The reverse can happen now and gold may decline in rupee terms.

Basically, the price of gold depends on currency movements; for example,  in Yen terms (Japan) gold have moved 240% & in Pound terms (Britain) 390% in the same period (Check below Chart).

And you already know about Gold price in Rupee term. So what do you feel – whether India will grow & its currency will appreciate or economy will slow down & our currency will depreciate further? We don’t know what lies ahead, but looking at the history, we are not bullish on gold as much as we are bullish on Indian Equities. As long as world keep rising, gold will not give much return. Here we would like to add a recent quote of  legendary investor Warren Buffet – “We live in a world where 80 years out of 100 will be good. But we don’t know which 20 will be bad.”

We always used to suggest investors that gold is not an investment, it is an insurance which would save you in case the entire financial markets were to tumble down. The live example is that of Zimbabwe where, paper currency has lost its value and if you are holding paper currency, it is depreciating at a rate which is unimaginable. You have to carry crores of Zimbabwe currency just to buy a loaf of bread. Now if you are holding gold, you can actually buy or barter goods there. At least, you can go to neighboring country South Africa and buy what you want as gold is recognized everywhere.

Now, if an average Indian household were to look at their asset allocation, they already hold more gold in the form of jewelry or otherwise than they hold Indian equities. In fact, Indians are the biggest consumer of gold. One must consider gold as part of asset allocation tool and over-boarding on it may not be that a great idea. It may happen that in short run, gold may give better returns but mind you, it is Indian equities that will create a long lasting wealth for investors.

One more important point to note

It is often said that Gold is a Hedge against Inflation. But if you were to look at the graph below, you would find that gold has not kept pace with rising inflation. The blue line shows the actual price of gold and the red line shows the price which gold should have carried in order to match with inflation

In October 2009 when Gold was $ 1072, Bloomberg made this statement “While bulls say gold is cheap, the inflation-adjusted price is 15 percent above its 30-year average, Bloomberg data show.” First time in 100 years gold has touched it’s inflation price – what will happen next?

What they meant is that it is for the first time that gold price is above its inflation-adjusted price which clearly states that gold is over-priced as it is a sheer currency and nothing else.

Research on investor psychology

The following are Google trend charts. It analyzes a portion of Google web searches to compute how many searches have been done for the terms you enter, relative to the total number of searches done on Google over time. This clearly shows that people start searching for investment which have gone higher in recent past. Check 2nd Graph of Mutual funds which peaked in December 2007 when equity markets were also at their peak. No one was searching for Mutual funds in the end of 2008 or start of 2009 when actually it was the best time to invest. Upto 2007 end when it was best time to invest in gold but no one was searching for it but when price went up, the number of searched went up.

Few points that we would like to leave open for discussion:

  • What will happen if Indians were to start selling gold as it is at its highest price
  • Why IMF sold gold when it was at $ 1045 per ounce
  • Today experts are saying – Buy Gold. why did not they said when gold was at Rs.5000
  • Gold has appreciated 13 times in last 30 years and sensex has appreciated 140 times. Still why Indians love gold more than sensex

But the problem is “The markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent…“. So never try to time the markets/assets & keep a proper asset allocation.

 

This is a guest article by Hemant Beniwal & Ashish Modani. They both are CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNERCM & writes at The Financial Literates.

GFactor , A decision making tool for Financial products

Posted on by Jagoinvestor

How do you find out if a product suits your requirement ? What about a very simple calculation which can take into account most important requirements like lock in factor , complexity of a product , your requirement and its return and risk potential and tells you if it really suits your requirement. This Post will talk about a concept developed by me called GFactor , which is a score system for any Financial Product. You can input 4 factors and get a score for a product . So this GFactor score system will tell you about goodness/badness of a product.  Gfactor stands for Goodness Factor .

What is GFactor ?

GFactor is a very simple rating system for Financial products which gives a score on a scale of 0-1 . 1 represents excellent , 0 means worse . There are mainly 4 factors which we consider when we design this GFactor .

  • Trap Factor (Liquidity)
  • RR Factor (Risk/return Factor)
  • Complexity Factor
  • Need Factor

Trap Factor

Trap Factor is nothing but its score for the product on scale of 0 – 1 for the lock in period. The more trapped you have to be in product , the more will be the Trap factor score. One important point you should note here is that you should also consider how much loss you have to take even after you can freely come out of the product . For example : Endowment policies trap you for long periods like 15 to 20 yrs . Even though there is an option to close the policies you loose a lot of money. So the trap factor of Endowment Policies will be more like 0.9 or 1 , where as Mutual funds (non tax saving funds do not have any type of locking period) . So they can have trap factor of 0.1 or 0 . In ULIP you are stuck for at least 3-5 yrs , only after the 5th year. So it can have a trap factor of 0.6 or 0.7  you can get out without any penalties . For term insurance there is no trap factor , you can stop the policy any time .

Years of Trap

Trap Factor
No Trap 0
1-3 yrs 0.2
4-10 yrs 0.5
10-15 yrs 0.75
15+ yrs 1.0

 

 

Risk/Return Factor

Risk/Return Factor is a factor which will evaluate a single digit score for its risk/return potential . This score takes into consideration both risk and return . You can look it as risk adjusted return potential . so this factor will determine the return potential considering the risk potential. To calculate this you should know average return and average risk figures of a product in its total duration . Lets see the calculation first .

Risk Return Factor = (Average Return – Average Risk)/Average Return

Lets see an Example in case of ULIP : Robert wants to buy some mutual funds for next 5 yrs . In these 5 yrs , as per the historical data , we know that he can expect an absolute 100% return on average  (his money can double) , and if some thing bad has to happen hecan loose around 30% of value (the figures will differ for everybody) . So

Example for Mutual Funds (5 yrs)

  • Average Return = 100%
  • Average Risk = 30%

Risk Return Factor (Mutual funds) = (100 – 30)/100 = 0.7

Example for Fixed Deposits (2 yrs)

In this case suppose the returns from FD are @8% .

  • Average Return = 16%
  • Average Risk = 0%

Risk Return Factor (FD) = (16 – 0)/16 = 1.0

Note : For term insurance , the return will be the max amount you can get and Risk would be amount you can loose all , which is total premium over many years.

Complexity Factor

Complexity score is a number you assign to the product, depending on the how complex of easy it looks to you . For example Mutual funds can be easy to understand for me , so I can put 0.1% for it a complexity, whereas  NPS is more complicated to me , so I will put 0.5 . This means If it looks too complicated for you, then give a higher score, whereas if you understand it well, assign lower score .

For a normal person I would say ULIP is complicated , so we gave give a score of .7 or .8 or 1 ,depends on you, where as term insurance is extremely easy to understand, so it will get 0 or .1 , Mutual funds would be .2 or .3

Need Factor

Its a score given on the fact that how badly you need or require the product and will it be the best thing for you. One person may need it more than other, so the score will be different for different people. If you are not in a hurry, but your relative suggests you a policy , then it does not become a very high priority product for you, because you do not require it at that time, so you will assign a lower score to it .  For a person who is in his 26-27 age and just married and has some financial dependents , His score for term insurance will be around .9 or 1 because he badly needs it . Make sure you know difference between your needs and wants

A person who is 45 , for him/her NeedFactor for Health Insurance would be .8 or .9

A person who is Extremely High risk taker and understands equity investing well , his need factor for NSC or FD would be low , say a score of .2 or .3 because he really does not need it and it does not suit his requirement also .

Now Lets construct the formula

Variables are

TF : Trap Factor
RRF : Risk Return Factor
CF = Complexity Factor
NF = Need Factor

You should understand how the formula should be constructed. Out of the 4 variables, 2 scores shows strength of the product(Need Factor and Risk Return Factor), where as two scores are negative(Trap and Complexity Factor), so below formula should take care of this aspect .

GFactor Formula = (NF * RRF) – (CF*TF)

Lets take an example . Ajay is a 35 yrs old Indian working in a Software company, He has 2 kids and 1 wife 🙂 and 1 parent to support . His risk appetite is moderate and he cant take more than 20% downside in his investments at any given year . He has a home loan and a car loan at this moment and has just 10 lacs of overall savings . Below is the chart which calculates GFactor for some products considering Ajay’s situation. Understand that these numbers are for Ajay, it can change for you .

Products
 Trap Factor
 Return/Risk Factor
 Complexity Factor
 Need Factor
 GFactor
 Term Insurance
 0 0.95 0 1 0.95
 Health Insurance
 0 0.85 0.3 0.8 0.68
 ELSS
 .25 0.5 0.1 1 0.48
 ULIP
 .25 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.1
 Tax Saving FD
 .5 1 0 0.1 0.1
 Endowment Policy 1 1 0.5 0 -0.5

Rules

  • If GFactor value is more than .7 , you can consider that product as “Must buy. Go for it” .
  • If its more than .4 , you can consider it as “Average”
  • If its more than .2 , you can consider it as “Look for alternative product. Buy only if nothing else is available”
  • And if its less than .2 , then you must avoid it .

GFactor of a Portfolio

Just like we have Gfactor of a product , we can have GFactor of a Portfolio , which is average of GFactor’s of all the products in a Portfolio . Example

  • Term Insurance : 0.95
  • 4 ELSS : 0.43
  • 4-5 shares : 0.35
  • 10 gm of Gold ETF : .72
  • EPF contribution : 1
  • 3 months of Cash : 1

So average of all the GFactors = (.95 + .43 + .35 + .72 + 1 + 1)/6 = .742 . This  is a good Score for a Portfolio , But I can do better than this . Whats your Portfolio GFactor ?

 

Conclusion
There are 4 main factors which matter when taking the decision regarding a Financial product , The above concept is my own thinking and It may not fit everyone criteria , but I am sure it would be true for most of the people , If you have disagreements , its fine . We subconsciously understand how there 4 factors affects our decision making process , but the idea is to put it into formula and get a Score out of it , so that we can compare and know how good or bad a product can be for us .

Ques tion

  • Can you design a better formula for GFactor which makes more sense that what I have given .
  • Do you think GFactor can be useful to general investor to take decisions .
  • Please share with me GFactor of your overall Portfolio .

Note : This is an old post , I am republishing it with changes

Common Mistakes in Personal Finance [Part 2]

Posted on by Jagoinvestor

Unrealistic returns

Risk free returns, in our country are amongst the highest in the world. In countries like US, the interest rates are 1-2%. Equity markets in our country continue to provide 12-15% annual returns (Find Why) . But how much do investors expect from equity these days? A lot! No one is ready to settle below 20-25%? 12% is abusive to them, & makes them feel like they are cheated. A reader told me that he earned 100% this year from equity (2009) and he will be happy with even 25% next time! LOL! This happens when you look at short-term returns.  Investors who started in 2004 started thinking that they are all “Warren Buffet” and can leave their jobs in some years! Whereas all investors who started in 2007 end or 2008 start compare equity with their mother-in-laws, they just can’t stand it.

Think long-term, and timing will just not matter much. For retirement and child education, which is 15-20+ years away, just start a SIP in an Index fund and then go into a COMA, come back once in a while and just review it every 6 months to a year. That’s all.

Feeling special when it comes to Life or Health Insurance

I’m not sure why, but some people feel that they are god gifted. They feel good health is a good excuse to skip Health Insurance and just because they don’t drive carelessly, it makes them “Accident proof”. They don’t realise that most people die in accidents not because they don’t drive well; it’s because the other person does not. Probability of dying is almost the same for everyone, but everyone feels that they have better chances, of not being part of an accident or an attack.

Be realistic; especially in bigger cities the chances of accident is higher than smaller cities. Most and more casualties happen in bigger cities. Take adequate Life and Health cover.

Excessive Leverage and careless spending

In recent times, we spend like there’s no tomorrow. Easy available credit for home loan & the tax breaks available on them, EMIs available as an option for buying almost anything these days; all these easy means for laying hands on money has suddenly changed the way we see “Acquiring Assets” and “Spending”. Unlike our parents and grandparents, we are spending money, which we haven’t even earned. We buy houses, cars, vacations etc., and then pay the cost for the rest of our working lives. In some cases, it might make sense, but a large section of society just lives beyond their means (See this eye-opener from Subrmoney) .

Research shows, that we feel less guilty when we pay with our credit cards rather than cash. When we use cards, we don’t see money going out; there’s just a consolidated bill at the end. Nothing can be done (or undone) then, you just pay it. Imagine you are paying cash every time you are buying something you really do not need. We buy unwanted clothes, & unnecessary gadgets we can do without. How many of us claim, sometimes that we just can’t survive without a certain device, or feel that we can’t enjoy our life without certain doodads? Didn’t our parents and the old generation live without them or with limited quantities ?

Why have we all suddenly shifted to plasma TV rather than the old TV we have used in our childhood? Of course, technological changes should happen and we should always move forward, but buying a Plasma TV just because it looks cool in your drawing-room, does not make sense at all; that too, if you haven’t yet planned for your retirement or taken care of all the important goals in life. If it’s really your need , then go ahead , I would encourage , but most of the time people buy it out of comparison with friends and relatives. Once your other priorities have been achieved , you can go for it, But not at the cost of something more important .

I’ve heard horror stories of people who have bought homes and are crying today. Their home prices are moving up, but the quality of life has drastically decreased. They suffer horrible amounts of stress because now, even small things in life which gave them happiness, look unaffordable… all because that 2 BHK Flat’s EMI has to go through next month (A close look at Real Estate Returns in India).

No quality trips & vacations, heavy stress because of insecurities of jobs. Imagine a double income family with income of more than Rs 1 lac,  who belongs to top 1 percentile of the highest earners in the country, but not leading a happy life because of excessive debt they have taken on all the loans and not enjoying little things in life because of these issues . Whats the point of earning so well then ? Don’t try to be over ambitious at the cost of your current lifestyle and happiness! If you can’t manage your life successfully and happily, then the car, and the house, and all that financial planning is just a waste. (Read What is the goal of Financial Planning)

Short vision

Close your eyes and try to imagine your retirement, child education & marriage related expenses, and health care costs after 30 years. Can you predict your grocery bills after retirement? Living in present is great, but planning your future is critical now. Let us do a small exercise to show you what your dietary (food & eating) expenses at home after retirement will be.

Consider a 30 years old couple today… How much do they need to eat a decent breakfast, lunch and dinner at home? Even if you consider a meal at Rs 25, that’s Rs 150 for 3 meals/2 person a day, thats Rs 4,500 per month. I guess that’s what the grocery bill of most married couples in their 30’s would look like (I am unmarried, as yet). Now, Rs 4,500 per month today, means 25,000 per month after 30 yrs, which is 3 lacs per year just for groceries. Forget inflation for now, if you live for 30 yrs after retirement (worst case), that’s 30 years X 3 lacs = 90 lacs just for your breakfast, lunch and dinner and this, doesn’t even consider inflation. Some people think they would need 1 crore for their retirement , LOL !! . You will require at least 10-15 crores, start working on it NOW !! . Pray to God, you don’t live longer than that, else it would be really painful!

Not ready to pay for Advice

This is in our culture & our genes, it seems. The very idea of paying for advice is anathema to us. We rely on “free” advice most of the time. If we can get the top 10 mutual funds from valueresearchonline.com, then why pay someone for advice? When we know term insurance is best, and we have a good formula to calculate life insurance requirement, then why do we need a financial planner to tell us how much Insurance we need? If we have so many personal finance websites and magazines then why do we need financial planner, we can do it all by ourselves? We are a DYI (do it yourself) country! . I get many questions over email and comments, Imagine me asking for money for giving personalised advice, How many people will consider paying or will even accept that its fine ?

We must understand, however, that there are situations where you just can’t match professionals in some areas. The other thing is some advice can be general. For example “top 10 mutual funds” might not work for you, & might not be suitable for your situation. A different set of mutual funds might work in your case and to analyse your situation,  an investment consultant can be helpful. You have to take a call on whether its worth doing it all yourself or pay the fees & have a pro handle it.

Take large real estate transactions for example; I am amazed to see many people mailing me questions on complicated real estate deals, they are doing themselves, which actually might need a CA attention or professional advice to deal with. But why pay the CA that extra 10k or 15k he will ask for? They then, make mistakes and in long run lose a big amount of money just because of ignorance and not having optimized the whole deal.

Read Part 1 of Common Mistakes in Personal Finance

Comments Please , What are your views on these mistakes , which was the real eye-opener for you ? Do you want more of these kind of articles ?

Common Mistakes in Personal Finance [Part 1]

Posted on by Jagoinvestor

Spending more than you should

Sometimes, people spend impulsively, on things which they do not really need. Just because, your plastic card is in your wallet and you “might” need it in future makes you believe that you need to get it right now. A brand new camera, with a 100 megapixel sensor and a 2000 x zoom is available at an EMI of just 1999 per month — and suddenly you’re interested in Photography! An EMI of 2500 a month, for that magical million colour, anorexic Flat Screen TV creates a magical belief in you that your normal TV at home is now really blurry these days (not to mention really fat!)

Is there a need, to splurge on Movies and eat out, every weekend? A regular meal at home, with a movie on tv is also a good weekend, at times. With many people, savings occur, only if they are left with any money at the end of the month. This needs to change – start saving first, then spend on what’s necessary and then spend on your desires – last. Financial planning does not mean compromising your dreams or what you love to splurge on; it’s all about knowing what you need and what you don’t, & knowing it well! . Read : Can you live with 90% of your Salary

No Financial Education to Spouse and Kids

Most people are more comfortable talking about SEX rather than FINANCE to kids (just kidding.) They dont feel the need to tell their children that they have bought life insurance for them (the kids) should they be hit by a bus tomorrow (the parents, not the kids 🙂 ). Once children reach an age of maturity like 16 or 17; when they can understand things & reason well and can take on responsibilities to some extent… Please start telling them about money and finances. Once you are gone, you can’t even regret.

Kids should know what your work is & how much you earn. They should be clear on how you are saving money to fund their education, bike , trips etc. Once they know about life t it, chances are they will be a lot more supportive, would be realistic in their demands & stay well within their limits. Kids don’t know sometimes, how much pain you take in earning money. Most of the times, kids know your salary and your designation at company and assume the family to be a “higher middle class” one. Once you tell them about Home loan EMI, Car Loan, other liabilities, Retirement Savings,  Education Expenses, Marriage expenses and the medical emergencies for which you are saving, they will have a better idea about the current situation and they will act responsibly.

Parents feel a little uncomfortable, telling their kids these things, as they feel children are still young and such information will create unneccessary psychological pressure and they would not talk about their demands and be unhappy. Parents feel that children should start learning about finance and applying that knowledge, once they are in a job and start earning. I say, if your finances and spending habits are messed up today, a big reason could be that, your parents never talked about finance with you openly. The same applies to spouses. Imagine, if you had all the knowledge and best practices you have learned on this blog, 10 years ago; or when you started earning? The situation would have been very different today, wouldn’t it?

Dont let this happen to your kids: Teach them!

Imbalanced Asset Allocation

A lot of people have a tendency to start working and then never look at, or review their finances. Tax Planning is nothing more, than a “signature” on some form for them. Initiatives from their side are limited to just calling an “agent” and nothing more. When they finally look back at their finances, they find that they have 40 Lacs in FD’s and 25  lacs lying in Bank. This happens a lot with NRI’s working outside the country. These are 35 yrs old who have 90% in debt or Cash, and 3-4 mutual funds and shares bought in recent years just for “trying”. This category misses a huge amount of returns which they could have made with just 4-5 hours of planning or hiring a proper investment consultant.

On the other hand, there are investors who have no PPF, no FD, no Debt Funds, no bonds; they just do share trading, buy direct stocks, invest in just Mutual funds (pure equity). Their imbalanced Asset allocation is responsible for the huge ups and downs their portfolio takes. One year the worth of their portfolio will be 10 lacs, the next year it will be 7, then suddenly it will be 14 lacs the next year. The numbers dance with huge fluctuations, but at the end of let’s say, a decade, they look back & find they are nowhere better than their “High debt Instrument” kind of Investor brothers .

Buying products from Close One’s

Will you sell a junk product to yourself if there’s a 35% commission and it will be a burden to you all your life ? I don’t think so, but if you had to sell it to your friend, colleague, brother-in-law, sister-in-law, father’s friend etc, you’d consider it, wouldn’t you? That’s what happens in real life too.

Most times, the “Best plan” comes from one of your relatives or some one known. STOP IT PLEASE! A simple NO might hurt your relations with said person, but it will save you, your hard-earned money, rather than waste it on idiotic products, which you’ll regret for life 🙂 It’s just common sense that there are better advisors and consultants than your relatives or a close ones, unless they themselves are known and respected in the field (of finance). Read : “Papa Kehte Hain” problem in Personal Finance

Most of the readers here, have shared their bitter personal experiences, where they bought products because it came from their relatives, Uncle’s et al. This happens a lot with young guys yet to start working, and their fathers have bought policies for them and then delegated the premium paying responsibility to them once they start earning, it’s a real “burden of legacy” .

Read Part 2 of Common Mistakes in Personal Finance

Comments please , Any other mistakes you can think of ?

How do Highest NAV Guarantee Plans work ?

Posted on by Jagoinvestor

Now a days, we are seeing a new “Innovative” product in the market. They’re called Highest NAV Guaranteed Plans .These products have come in, after the recent crash in the market, and companies are taking advantage of the fact that Investors are looking for some kind of a safe investment equity product. Hence, they’ve launched these Highest NAV Return ULIP’s which confuse investors and make them (the investors :)), believe that they are going to get the highest return from the Stock market in long run – generally the tenure is 7 yrs, for these plans .

In this article, we look at how Highest NAV Guarantee ULIP’s work, and you will understand, how any Guarantee product can be created by simple methods . The simple catch, here is that these schemes, are structured in such a manner, that the collected funds can be invested either in equities, debt instruments or in money-market instruments in proportions varying from zero to 100%

How Highest NAV Guarantee Policy Works ?

These plans use strategies like Dynamic Hedging and CPPI (Constant proportion portfolio insurance), which are advanced strategies used in Derivatives world. But, let me explain a simplified version of the whole process.

Supposing a policy starts today and is guaranteed to give highest NAV in next 7 yrs  and we can control how money moves to debt and equity, its pretty simple.

In the beginning, let’s assume a NAV of Rs 10, and the Asset allocation is 100% in equity and 0% in debt . Now suppose, the market moves up and NAV goes upto Rs 15 by the end of the first year, at this point, try to understand what Insurance company has to provide – they have to make sure, that they provide at least Rs 15 as the return after 6 yrs . Now in order to achieve this, all they have to do is keep X amount in debt instruments which will mature in next 6 years and provide Rs 15 at the end of 6 yrs, so assuming the debt return at 7%, they need to put around Rs 10 in Bonds , so that the maturity of the bond is Rs 15 at the end of 6 yrs .

=>  10 * (1.07)^6
=>  15.007

They can now invest the rest Rs 5 in Equity as Rs 10 is allocated to Debt . So, now they’ve made sure that whatever happens to the market, they get Rs 15 for sure at the end of 6 yrs. Now, there are two possibilities

Case 1 : Market Goes down : If market goes down, the NAV will go down correspondingly, but as per the strategy, the maturity value will be at least Rs 15.

Case 2 : Market Goes up again : If market goes up at this point and the NAV rises above 15, for example say to Rs. 18, now again they will pull out money from Equity and allocate such an amount to debt, that the maturity at the end of total 7 yrs would be Rs 18 and so on…

Note :

  • These highest guaranteed schemes do not provide wide range of product categories, such as equity-oriented growth funds, balance funds and debt funds.
  • Guarantee on highest NAV is available only if you survive the term. If you die during the term, your nominees will get the prevailing value of the fund. This is inferior to even a regular debt product because of the high cost structure involved.

Following is a pictorial description of how the Guaranteed NAV plan works with assumption of a 7 year tenure.

How does a Highest NAV guarantee plan works

How Investors get Confused

You have to read in between the lines; Investors need to understand that these schemes guarantee the “Highest NAV”,  READ AGAIN! , it’s Highest NAV and not “Highest Returns” .  Normal Investors don’t give much thought before buying these products and normally assume that the returns will be linked to the Equity Markets .

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Returns from Highest NAV Guarantee Plans

So, what are the return expectations of these funds? We know, that long-term equity returns, are normally in the 12-15% range while, debt returns turn out to be 6-7%. So, considering the fact, that these products will shift most of their money to debt, by the end of the tenure , we can expect the returns to be in range of 9-10%. We do get some equity upside in these products, but that will be limited. After a point, this product will turn into a debt oriented fund with a major portion in debt . Also if you factor in costs, like premium allocation charges , fund management charges and other yearly charges, the returns will not be what you actually expect.

You will be amazed to know, that the returns expected from these schemes, may be lower than the returns offered by equity-oriented Ulips. The reason being, that the basic objective of protecting the previous high NAV of the fund, may constrain the fund manager’s ability to take risks while allocating funds. So if the market has fallen down, the fund manager can’t take the risk of shifting the money from Debt to Equity to gain from the potential upsides in future , because they have to provide the “Guarantee.”

Read : Important Questions you should Ask an ULIP Agent ?

Source :  LiveMint Research

Current Products in Market with Highest NAV Guarantee

  • ICICI’s Pinnacle
  • Birla Sun Life Platinum Plus-III
  • Bajaj Allianz Max Gain
  • SBI Life Smart Ulip
  • Tata AIG Apex Invest Assure
  • LIC Wealth Plus
  • Reliance Highest NAV Guarantee Plan.
  • AEGON Religare Wealth Protect Plan

Controlling your emotions with these products

Let’s talk about mistakes from the investors point of view. We, as investors, don’t think with inquisitive, susceptive minds. Getting good returns from stock markets is anyways a tough thing in itself. So when these companies come up with plans like these, which say “highest NAV in 7 yrs”, we have to ask, “How is this possible?” . Dont say it’s not possible at all, just ask how? How do they achieve it? Stop seeing dreams of getting high returns without looking at the risk involved, and try to find out – what is the strategy they’re using , Is there something in between the lines ?

We all want to get great returns, but we have to shed this belief that, companies come up with plans specially for us. All the companies out there exist to earn money, and their motive behind every product is to make money, & generate profits for their companies, so that they keep their shareholders happy. So next time a product like this comes up , you have to control your emotions before getting in and first investigate. The worst part of this whole business, (of guaranteed highest NAV products) is the timing and how it gives naive investors, high illusions about the product. Products like these, take major advantage of psychology of the ordinary saver. Many Investors in smaller towns have broken their Fixed Deposits and taken some loan to invest in products like these, especially SBI Life Smart Ulip and LIC Wealth Plus because of the trust factor with LIC and SBI . See How Agents are Misselling LIC Wealth Plus

Why you should be “Pissed off” At these Insurance Companies

  • Do you Know that, The Securities & Exchange Board of India (SEBI) , the stock market and mutual fund regulator, does not allow mutual funds to guarantee returns. Therefore Mutual funds can not provide guaranteed products which are related to stock markets, but IRDA can approve things like these and all these insurance companies come under the ambit of Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority of India (IRDA). So any Insurance Company can come up with a new Plan , link it with market and start providing “Guaranteed products” . You have to understand that “equity markets” and “guarantees” are a very risky idea together , so please stay away.
  • Do you observe when do all these “Innovative” products come up in Market ? The answer is around end of the year, which is a premier Tax Investment time (Jan , Feb , Mar) . Is innovation in Finance space limited to End of the year ? Why dont these products come through out the year? Why ? The answer is simple , if it comes after anytime other than last 4-5 months of the Financial Year (ie Dec , Jan , Feb , Mar) , no body will bother to invest in these, because no body is bothered to “invest” at all . Companies very well understand investors psychology and their helpless ness at the end of the year because they have to provide investment proofs for Tax exemption as soon as possible . This is not just limited to these products , its true for NFO’s , IPO’s in booming markets , More Sales calls at the end of the year, and other new products .
  • The so-called “Guarantee” is a marketing gimmick and is implicitly a result of the way the investment is structured . what it means is that the strategy they use itself is such that it will provide you the highest NAV , even we can create our own Plan and do what they are doing . But they make sure that Investors  feel like they have done years of research and came up with these amazing plans .
  • You have to understand that there is nothing “Innovative” in this product , the fact that 7 companies have come up with the same product proves that its not “innovation” because Innovation is unique . Aegon Religare has gone ahead in this stupidity and introduced their Guaranteed Plan which guaranteed 80% of the Highest NAV , Looks like they think that it makes them look different from others .

Who should Invest in These Products ?

If you are looking for modest returns, like 8-10%, you can invest in these policies. The return of these policies may be high in the beginning, if market does well; but when market starts performing badly, the returns can take a hit and then be in a tight range. Your NAV will be protected for sure, but the returns wont be, since over time the CAGR return will go down. Remember, if your NAV is 10 today and you highest NAV is 20, for a 2 year period, the return is a good enough 41%, but by the 4th year it’s just 18.9% and by the end of 7th year it’s a measly 10.4%. So what you really need, is protection of returns, not the NAV which is just a fixed number.

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Review of LIC’s Wealth Plus

Posted on by Jagoinvestor

If you were to hear about an investment plan with 17% p.a. returns i.e. if you invest Rs. 1lac today, it would become Rs. 3.5  lacs  in next 8 years time, wouldn’t you get greedy?And what if it is told to you that such Highest  NAV Guaranteed ULIPs are guaranteed by one of the biggest financial institution LIC of India, it would be Icing on the Cake and a “Never Miss Opportunity”. But everything sounds so good, if looked deeply may reveal something else. Someone rightly said “the big print give it and the fine print take it away”. Such is the case with LIC’s new insurance plan- Wealth Plus.

Game Started in 2007

Every year during the last quarter of Financial Year, insurance agents find new ways to misguide people and make them invest in policies based on false assumptions and promises. Let us take example of year 2007 when LIC launched one of its most famous policy “Money Plus”.

During the launch, pamphlets were distributed in all the nook and corner of the country showing high returns. Eg. Invest Rs. 1 lac for next three years and get Rs.3.38 crores after 20 years at a return of 25% p.a. Based on such exuberant returns printed on a pamphlet and false promises made by agents, thousands and lakhs of investors across India invested their money. Not only did people invested their savings but there were many instances where smaller households sold their jewelry and other personal belongings believing what they were told by the agents that LIC is guaranteeing such high returns.

What LIC have to say

Later when the news of misguided selling of this policy was brought to the notice of LIC management. LIC states that such assumptions are unrealistic and totally false. Investors should not be misguided in the name of LIC. On a letter dated February 12, 2007 to all the Zonal Manager and Sr. Divisional Managers,  Managing Director of the LIC Mr. Mathur himself writes that “The unethical practice of circulating such pamphlets to misguide the public and get business is betraying the trust we built-in the last 50 years.” See the Letter Below (Click to read in bigger Size , recommended)

LIC Zonal officer letter for misselling in LIC Wealth Plus ULIP Policy

Though efforts were made to stop agents to use such pamphlets to increase their business but since the agent community is so big and scattered not much could be done. It was quite amazing that all over India similar pamphlets were distributed and hence it is clear that without the help of Development Officer of LIC such work was not possible. D.O. of LIC also gets commissions or incentives when his agents gives more business to LIC. See the pamphlets Below:

Pamphlets showing returns with Term 3 yrs and investment 25,000

LIC Wealth Plus Misselling Pamphlets

Pamphlets showing returns with Term 1 yr and investment 1,00,000

LIC Wealth Plus ULIP policy misselling pamphlets

Another template with LIC Logo

LIC Wealth Plus Guaranteed NAV ULIP Misselling

What other Govt bodies have to say

Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution through “Jago Grahak Jago” also acknowledged that such misleading things are taking place and hence warned investors to refrain themselves from such high return promises.

D Swaroop (PFRDA Chairman) committee on investor awareness & protection states that “The chief cause of mis-selling is the incentive structure that induces agents to look after their own interest rather than that of the customer. If that were not true, the average sum assured of the insured Indian would be higher than the current Rs 90,000.”

 

Now when a income earner of an average Indian family dies untimely, do you think his family will survive for the rest of their life with less than Rs. 90,000? Insurance is meant to cover risk of untimely death first and investment and tax savings are secondary criteria. But we Indians, have been taught Insurance as an investment first, tax savings second and then somewhere in the last we talk of insurance as well. Now again such practice of miss-selling has emerged and agents are targeting with LIC’s new product Wealth Plus.

What is LIC Wealth Plus Product

This product of LIC which was launched on February 9, 2010 (Table 801) states that LIC will guarantee the highest NAV to the investor in the first 7 years and product will mature after 8 years. It nowhere guarantees the return. In it’s official web-site, LIC states that the minimum guarantee will be of Rs. 10 NAV as Rs. 10 will be the starting point. Actually that means that they are not even guaranteeing that you will get your entire money back as there will be certain charges in the policy itself. They have nowhere written that they will guarantee any amount of return to the investor. Nor they have mentioned that your money will be invested 100% into equity.

Now what Agents are telling

  • LIC is giving guarantee on HIGHEST RETURN. (LIC is saying Highest NAV)
  • Now what is highest return? Based on past performance of LIC’s ULIP policy (Bima Plus), you will get 17%-18% return on investment.
  • Lumpsum Rs. 1 lac invested today will become Rs.3,45,693/- or give Rs 25000 for 3 years & get Rs.2,14,690/- after 8 years.
  • You should switch all your  earlier product (on which agents have already made huge commission) into this product as this is something which is as good as KOHINOOR DIAMOND.

To generate such high returns, the money has to remain in equity but LIC nowhere states that. In almost all ULIPs it is clear how much money will go in equities and how much money will go in debt but this policy is silent on the allocation percentage and hence you may land up getting return that of endowment or money back (nearly 6%-7%).

Bima Plus of LIC was a ULIP where it was mandatory for the fund manager to remain invested in Equities in a pre-decided proportion. It was launched in 2001 when the markets were trading at 3000 sensex levels and later sensex touched even 21000. Is it a right approach to compare such high returns which were made during Bull Market and making investor believe that such returns will be now guaranteed by LIC. Now if you go to a small shopkeeper, a carpenter or a young executive and show them that you will get such high return, why he/she will not invest and that too if they are told that guarantee is done by the India’s biggest financial institution, LIC.

We feel sorry to say but such agents who are misleading people do not even think twice before selling such policies in a wrong approach. The fact of the matter is that the money is just not invested in policies but gets invested in someone’s kids higher education, someone’s retirement, some dreams which common man look to achieve.  We believe that

Insurance agents have sold to Indian everything other than Insurance.

Comment from a Reader who is an LIC Agent

Thanks Manish for bringing up this burning issues today. As a agent I can confirm you that these pamphlet actually circulated by LIC office. If you have any doubts go to any LIC branch ask any sales manager or BM they will tell you same. Actually agents sell the product because they are misguided by Senior LIC officials but unfortunately when debate arise agents are vindicated and punished. The projection shown in the phamphlet, circulated to us at the time product launch meeting. For a wealth plus policy LIC given extra incentive to us. But yes you are absolutely true we should think about our client not LIC/BM/DO. It is not true that agents always think about their pocket,they bound to sell product sometime otherwise they face a painful situation. Ask any Insurance company/agent how many term insurance they sell, they wont tell you the truth. IRDA also not interested about selling pure term insurance product otherwise they also issue circular to increase the term insurance sales growth. If this is the situation what will a agent do? Either he has to terminate his agency or keep continuing same practice as Big agents/Insurance Company/IRDA like to do. ( Original Comment )

What is IRDA guidelines says

As per IRDA, agents and Insurance companies are mandated to show return either at 6% or 10%. But the pamphlet distributed have no regards for Regulatory guidelines. Let’s Compare return according to pamphlet & IRDA Guidelines:

Regular Premium Single premium
Premium 25000 100000
Paying Term 3 years 1 Year
Pamphlet 214690 345639
As per IRDA guidelines
6% 87549 118442
10% 114306 161697
  • Figures are approx

Innocent Investors ?

We believe even investor is at fault and not all the blame should be transferred to the Agents alone. It is always “Buyers Beware”. We take well thought decision before we buy even a fridge in our house. We do research which fridge is best for us and look at least 4-5 shops before we finalize. But when it comes to financial products, we don’t really do our home work and at times decision is taken not even going through the pros and cons of the policy.

Now what investors should do?

If you have already taken the policy

  • Cancel the policy if bought under false promises and high projection. The policy can be returned within 15 days of the receipt of the document without any charges under ‘free-look’ option.
  • If 15 days are over, nothing much can be done.

If Not Taken

  • Take your well thought decision before jumping on to this product.
  • Tell your friends about the same.

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Comments ? would love to here your views on Wealth Plus from LIC . Please share what do you feel about it ?

This is a guest article by Hemant Beniwal & Ashish Modani. They both are CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNERCM & writes at The Financial Literates

Regular Premium

Single premium

Premium

25000

100000

Paying Term

3 years

1 Year

Pamphlet

214690

345639

As per IRDA guidelines

6%

87549

118442

10%

114306

161697

How many Mutual Funds you should have ?

Posted on by Jagoinvestor

Investment in how many mutual funds is enough? Though it depends on individual needs and situation, we can always arrive at a number or a range which should be optimal for a large chunk of mutual funds  investors. Many a times Investors invest in a large number of mutual funds which does not add any additional value to their portfolio most. They have to understand that investing in every new mutual fund coming into the market will not help them in any ways because after a point they have their investment in most of the companies in stock market. In this article lets see how many mutual funds a common man should invest in general.

Reason we buy mutual funds

Before moving forward, let’s understand why do we buy Mutual funds at the first place? We sometimes neglect the basic reason to invest in mutual funds, the reason is very simple:

We invest in Mutual Fund because we have money to invest but we dont have the expertise to invest in Stock Market. We do not want to spend time to manage the investments directly in different stocks and we want to make sure that we diversify our investment across a number of different companies.

Statistics on Number of Mutual funds in a portfolio

I conducted a Poll on this topic and we have some interesting results .

Facts

  • 63% people invested in less than 6 Mutual funds
  • 84% people invested in less than 10 mutual funds
  • 50% people invested in 1-6 mutual funds
  • The maximum number of investors were in the optimal range of 4-6 .
  • Total Vote : 225
  • Average number of Mutual funds : 5.57

If you look closely the graph results mimic binomial distribtution (Ignore this if you don’t understand), which shows that law of numbers apply even to this phenomenon and somewhere the average number of mutual fund converges to the most logical number by default .

Why it does not add much value when you invest in more mutual funds?

Each mutual fund on an average invest in at least 50-60 companies. If you buy 3-4 mutual funds then you are anyways going to invest in close to 100 companies overall (considering there will be some overlaps). So If you buy any equity diversified mutual funds, your money is going to be invested in some of the best companies probably 50-100 of them. Now when you buy another Equity diversified mutual fund there are high chances that the money is going to be invested in almost same set of companies in some proportion, so you are going to invest in same set of companies again. Buying 2nd mutual fund of same category will obviously increase your reach to some companies which were not part of the 1st mutual fund. But now as and when you add 3rd, 4th or 5th mutual fund, you will actually be invested indirectly to same set of companies. The price movement of these companies share prices will be same for all the mutual funds (most probably).

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So what you have to understand is that after a certain point, adding more mutual funds of the same category is of no much value for the portfolio. Adding more number of mutual funds leads to another problem which is tracking problem if you are a kind of investor who buys a mutual funds and just looks at the NAV to find out if you are in profit or loss then you are not doing right thing. Mutual funds investing is very much close to Share investing where you track the instrument, see how it’s performing, what’s going inside the fund, how is fund manager doing, how are they churning the portfolio etc etc. So if you have too many mutual funds in your portfolio, it will be too tough to track them and your portfolio will be very cluttered.

You have to understand that investment of 1 lac in 20 mutual fund will roughly behave in the same way as investment in 5 mutual funds because finally the investment has happened in shares of top companies (roughly the same number of shares), so the investment value is result of the underlying share prices movement and not the number of mutual funds in the portfolio.

Thumb rules:

You can ask two basic questions to yourself to find out if your portfolio size is too big for yourself:

  1. Can you name all the mutual funds in your portfolio and a 2-3 line explanation about what the fund does?
  2. Can you guess roughly how does the movement in stock market affect your corpus in general? If stock market is going to drop or increase by X%, so you have a rough idea of what will happen to your portfolio at a high level?

Example of a Portfolio of Mutual funds

Let’s create a sample portfolio of mutual funds. We will consider ETF’s as a mutual funds for this example:

  • 2-3 Equity diversified Mutual Fund (Tax + Non-Tax saving): See the List
  • 1-2 Debt Fund: See the List
  • 1-2 ETF’s or Index Funds

Note that 2-3 Equity Diversified Mutual funds will cover almost all the big companies in your portfolio. Some ETF or index fund will give index level exposure and make sure you invest in top companies. Debt funds will add exposure to Debt part and no-correlation with Equity.

Most of the people do not invest in the same old fund they have bought, they feel that buying every other mutual funds in market will some way help them earn extra returns which is far from truth. Consistency in investment and faith in one of the good funds you have chosen is the right way to invest in mutual fund.

How having more than one Mutual fund in portfolio reduces the risk?

You have to understand the concept of standard deviation, it’s nothing but risk and return potential from mutual funds point of view. So a single mutual fund has the highest standard deviation and the risk and return can be very high. Adding more funds will help in reducing the standard deviation of the portfolio. As per Morning Star Research (Many thanks to Hemant Beniwal for sharing this)

After 4 funds, the effect of adding another fund diminished. It’s still noticeable, but not so dramatic. After 7 funds, things have mostly leveled out and after 10 funds, a portfolio’s standard deviation stays nearly the same regardless of how many funds you add. Thus, once you own between 7 and 10 funds, there may be no need for more. In fact, the more funds you own, the more likely you are to own at least a couple that do practically the same thing. That could be a drag on your returns because if you have multiple funds doing the same thing, one is likely to be better than the others. Focus on the superior fund and you’ll get better returns .

How do you Buy Mutual Funds? [POLL]

Comments, Please comment on what do you think is the optimal number of mutual funds?

How to look beyond short term returns in Mutual Funds

Posted on by Jagoinvestor

Want to buy a mutual funds which has given 105% return in 2009? Go ahead… How do most of the people choose a mutual fund? Let us try it once! Go to Valueresearchonline.com and find Top 10 funds across all the equity funds with 1 yrs performance. Below is the example of the page I got. So all these funds have given more than 100% return over the last 1 yr. Now it’s pretty simple to choose them, right? Just pick any of them and you have done your “Investment Planning”!!…… Far from the truth! Most of the mutual funds starts advertising their mutual funds “great” performance just after a strong market. They will claim that their fund has 1st rank in some blah blah category and they have the unique way of investing and what not. Let us see in this article, how we should look at short-term performing mutual funds and evaluate them on different parameters.

How Mutual Funds are marketed

Let’s take a case of “JM Emerging Leaders” Mutual Fund. Try to look at the points which a Mutual funds company can use to attract customers and What is the reason for each of them.

Its one of the 10 funds on the return parameter out of thousands of Mutual funds in this planet. Its 1 yr return is 144%.

 

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True! But what are the reason for this? The fund is extremely risky, risky to the extent you can’t imagine! The fund portfolio looks like this:

Mid Cap: 56.18%

Small Cap: 43.82%

(as of Feb 7, 2010)

Now what else do you expect from a fund which has all 100% of its money in Either Mid cap or Small Cap companies which moves like crazy after a big bear market? If the fund is so great in 1 yr parameter, what is the reason its overall return since it came in existence is -5% (negative return in last 5 yrs)? The answer is simple, the fund is exposes to too much Risk. In order to get extremely high returns, it’s exposing itself largely to risk that the returns over long-term will be unstable and probably low.

The fund beats it’s benchmark and category average returns by huge margin

This happens for the same reasons we talked above. Benchmark is an Index and it’s returns are not based on some one’s judgement or decisions, but mutual fund returns are!! Fund manager decides how aggressively they want to invest, so if today the fund has beaten it’s benchmark or Category in positive side, tomorrow when there will be disaster, it will beat it’s benchmark by huge margin on the negative side and the performance will be much lower than the benchmark, it’s called Beta

Mutual funds high returns myth

NAV more than doubled in 1 year

Again an idiotic comment, it’s all about return, the fund has made 105% return in 2009, but what is NAV value? Ans: 7. something % . It’s 5 yrs in existence now, started from NAV of 10 and still its at 7.something. At one time in 2009 the NAV went down to Rs 2.9, this 144% year in last 1 yr has helped it come back to 7.something levels now and still the returns are the marketing factors. I am wondering how it manages to get so much of investment (Fund has 262 crores of Net Asset Value as of 31/01/2010). Who is putting all the money in this?

What are the Two important factors you can look at and make a quick opinion

Lets talk about two main things

  • Mean
  • Standard Deviation or Volatility

Mean: Mean is nothing but the average of returns over a particular time. It tells us how much can we expect over a period from the mutual fund. It’s important to look at Mean (average) of Mutual funds return so that we have an average expectation. For some period we can get 20% return, for some period we can get 10% and for some we can get -15% also. But we have to concentrate on the average. Look at average return from Equity in Long run from Indian Markets

Standard Deviation : Now this is some thing we never see, what is this? Looks like a scary term from our school maths, but dont worry, it’s very easy thing to understand. Its nothing, but how much deviation you can expect from the average. To clear the point, understand that (10,12) and (1,21), both have average of 11 but standard deviation of (1,21) is high because both the values are at much distance from their average of 11. In that same way if we have two mutual funds say Mutual fund A, which has given returns of 20% and 30% in 2 yrs and we have mutual fund B, which has given return of -10% and 60% in 2 yrs,  both of them have average of 25% (simple average), but the second mutual funds B has higher standard deviation compared to A. What it means is that its more risky, the return range of B is higher. This is directly related to risk/reward. It’s very risky and very rewarding compared to mutual fund A. So it does not suit general investors who need high and consistent returns.

Look at List of Best Equity mutual funds and Debt mutual Funds

What to look at in mutual funds

So over a long term, we have to choose funds which are higher in Return and Lesser in Risk . That mean is there are two Funds X and Y, we have to look which has higher Mean and lower Standard deviation in returns. This is not true for investors who have extremely high risk appetite and want to take extra risk, in that case this will not be very much recommended.

Make sure you dont calculate these things on just 2-3 data points, make sure you have enough (at least 10-12 numbers) so that its more accurate. In the Table Below I have taken two funds which I consider BAD  and 2 Funds which are GOOD and their quarterly returns from Q1 2006 – Q4 2009 (16 quarters) and finally calculated the Standard Deviation and Mean.

 

Fund Names BAD FUNDS Average of BAD FUNDS Average of GOOD FUNDS GOOD FUNDS
JM Emerging Leaders-G Magnum IT HDFC Top 200-G DSPBR Top 100 Eqt Reg-G
Quarters Return in % for 1 quarter

 

Return in % for 1 quarterQ1 200616.196.9911.5921.6720.3522.98Q2 2006-13.69-7.53-10.61-10.09-10.83-9.34Q3 2006-0.6618.438.8916.9317.516.35Q4 20061.1529.0215.0911.01913.01Q1 2007-8.981.63-3.68-4.27-4.93-3.61Q2 200722.266.4114.3416.5915.1518.03Q3 200723.4-10.046.6815.8716.7514.99Q4 200741.659.325.4823.4620.8626.06Q1 2008-40.36-26.34-33.35-23.78-22.53-25.03Q2 2008-13.84-2.24-8.04-11.04-12.25-9.83Q3 2008-25.45-20.02-22.740.892.89-1.12Q4 2008-48.73-37.83-43.28-20.2-21.86-18.53Q1 2009-16.26-10.24-13.250.52-0.271.31Q2 200981.5858.2769.9347.4155.3339.49Q3 200924.837.6131.2119.3819.4819.27Q4 20098.3915.7712.085.085.065.09Standard Deviation

32.2424.3827.0718.3919.5717.47Mean3.224.323.776.846.866.82

 

Interpretation of the numbers

So you can see the Standard deviation and mean of returns for 2 Bad Funds and 2 Good funds and their mean return and mean standard deviation in a single quarter. So you can see that Bad funds have given return of around 3.77% per quarter on average (simple average , not compounded one) and the standard deviation is 27.07%, which means that it can deviate up to 27.07% on the upside or downside with 68% chances. (forget the maths, you have to go into probability and normal distribution and all those things, interested people can look for this link to get more insight on this. Similarly the good funds would return on an average 6.84% every quarter with deviation of 18.39% on upside or downside with 68% probability.

Conclusion

So, the conclusion of this whole mind boggling exercise is that we should understand that short-term performance of mutual funds is not where we should aim! We should properly evaluate the fund performance with different parameters. We should also concentrate on volatility and risk exposed by the mutual fund.

POLL (please vote, It will help me write a new post)

Comments please. Please share your views on how do you feel about Mutual funds with short-term performance ?

A short guide to Hire a Good Financial Planner in India

Posted on by Jagoinvestor

Are you looking for Financial Planner? If you are, you should go through this article that talks about almost all the necessary information you need before hiring a financial planner. Most of the clients are confused on simple things like, where to find a good financial planner, what they should expect from financial planner and most importantly they do not understand the financial planning environment in India and how it operates. There are lots of myths and misunderstanding around the financial planning field and this article will give you most of the basic information you need to be aware of while hiring a Financial Planner.

What is a Financial Planner and what is the Certification for Financial Planning

A financial planner is a professional who helps his clients to deal with various personal finance issues through proper planning. Just like we have a doctor for our physical problems, we have Financial planners for our Financial problems. Just because you know “what is a Mutual fund” or some “Tax laws” or can buy and sell stocks on Stock market, it does not mean that you don’t need a Financial planner. Financial Planners are professionals who have done the certification, have learned strategies and have gone through in-depth knowledge to understand how to restructure a common man’s financial mess and come up with a sound long term plan which will help a client achieve his/her financial goals in future.

Just like CA, MBA, CS and other professional certifications, there exist a certification course for Financial Planning which is called CFP (Certified Financial Planner). Read more about CFP Here. CFP is regarded as the top most certification in Financial Planning and it is recognized worldwide in majority of the countries.

The 6 steps of Financial Planning which every Financial Planner has to go through are

  • Step 1: Setting goals with the client
  • Step 2: Gathering relevant information on the client
  • Step 3: Analyzing the information
  • Step 4: Constructing a financial plan
  • Step 5: Implementing the strategies in the plan
  • Step 6: Monitoring implementation and reviewing the plan

Who is not a Financial Planner:

A lot of CA’s, CS’s, MBA (finance), CFA, ICWA and other Finance related professionals feel that they are the right professionals to do Financial planning for individuals. Just because “Financial Planning” or “Personal Finance” has “finance” word associated with it; does not mean that any one from different finance field can be a Financial Planner. Financial Planning is very different from what CA, CFA or a MBA Finance does.

Financial planning deals with individual personal finance, his future financial goals, the risk taking appetite. Having  CFA or MBA (finance) as qualification will definitely help at some level and may be some CA’s, CFA’s or MBA (Finance) have a great understanding of Financial Planning, but it’s not true for everyone in general. In the same way, any ULIP Agent, Insurance Adviser or Mutual funds agent, Wealth Manager, PMS guy is not a Financial Planner. These people are there to assist a Financial Planner to sell the products. In the analogy of Medicine field, Financial Planner is a Doctor and all these agents, Wealth managers etc. are like Compounders.

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Where to find a Financial Planner (Important)

There are two ways of hiring a Financial Planner for your self:

1. Hiring a CFP

In case you want to hire a CFP (which is recommended) you can get a list of CFP’s in India at FPSB website link, Click here.  You can find out CFP based on

  • Name/Company
  • City/State
  • Nature of Employment

Tip: You should search for CFP’s who are “Independent Financial Planners” or “Self Employed”. Read further to understand the reason.

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2. Hiring a non-CFP

You can also Hire a non-CFP but you have to be very careful while doing that. Before CFP certification came to India, we had excellent planners in the Industry who understood the financial planning process subconsciously and still practice that but without having the CFP certification. These people can be from various backgrounds but can have sound financial planning knowledge. They are rare species. Some of them who I can think of are people like P V Subramanyam.

The biggest problem one faces in hiring a Financial planner is the “Trust”. So you need to have some level of trust with Financial planner and for that you need to interact with him, spend time with him, get references from family and friends and once you are satisfied you can then hire him/her. A financial planner at the end is someone who is also interested in educating you and not just making money from you. Just imagine a doctor who gives you medicine, but does not tell you the preventive measures to take, so that you are not ill next time. Would you like to visit him again and again?  He should be interested in educating you up to a level where you can take informed decisions yourself. Only then you can call him a good doctor, the same applies to a financial planner.

Current Status of Financial Planning Practice in India

There are two ways a Financial Planner makes money

  1. By pure consulting and advising (by making the financial plan)
  2. Through Commissions (from products sold to clients)
  3. Combination of 1 and 2

In India people dont value consulting and hence Financial planners are having a hard time getting clients whom they can charge on pure consulting basis. Therefore what has happened is most of them make money through commissions from selling the products. Based on this fact most of the agents, wealth managers etc have completed CFP certification just because they can get the tag of “Financial planner” and then make a financial plan and finally sell products to them and make good commissions, hence at present the current status is that 8 out of 10 CFP’s in India are associated with some mutual funds or Insurance company as  either of

  • Analyst
  • Asset manager
  • Branch manager
  • Accountant
  • Vice president
  • Adviser
  • Senior manager
  • Wealth manager

They are still doing the same old work with a new certification in hand called “CFP” because they know that in coming days  CFP’s is what everyone will prefer to hire for their Financial planning and similar services. These so called just for name sake CFP’s make the financial plan and when you buy the products, they will make majority of their money through commissions.

So what you have to look for while hiring a financial planner is that He/She should be independent Financial planner and should not be associated with some Mutual funds or Insurance company and has no compulsion of executing the plan through him. There should be freedom in Clients hand that he/she can execute the plan from anywhere he/she wants. As an additional service Financial planner can give an option to have financial plan executed through them, but it should never be compulsory because otherwise there will always be some level of biased attitude while recommending products to you.

The biggest problem with Financial Planning is that still “Financial Planning” is confused with “Investment Planning”. The moment I tell someone I am a Financial Planning writer, they start asking me stupid questions like

  • What do you think Market will do tomorrow?
  • Which is the best mutual fund?
  • I have 5 lacs spare cash, how should I invest it so that I get maximum returns?

No one talks anything other than investment. Financial Planning is more than just investment planning, it’s much more than that. Read more to understand what is the goal of Financial planning.

Why to Hire an Independent Financial Planner

Do you know how a Financial Plan is made? No you don’t! Here are the problems with the Financial Plans:

1  No Personal Touch

What most of the Financial planning company or professionals do is that they have automated Financial Planning software in which they just stuff your data and create a Financial Plan automatically with a single click. This can take just minutes. While there is nothing wrong in creating the basic template of Financial Plan with help of a software but what really matters is how much of that is customized to a client’s needs personally? So a financial planner should give enough time to tweak the financial plan to suit a clients need, which is more though for Financial planners working for big organisations especially mutual funds and Insurance companies because they have to stick too much to the template they use and not to much of customization is done or recommended.

An Independent Financial Planner has more liberty and flexibility to make a financial plan which will be more suitable for you. So if he wants to add some extra part to financial plan or want to restructure something totally, it’s possible with independent financial planner but it’s rigid with non-independent financial planners.

2. Lack of quality

Everyone like beautiful pictures, we are attracted to beautiful people no matter what crap they are from inside. Some of the best looking things in the world are totally shit. Same is true for Financial Plans, that most of the financial plans I have seen has beautiful pictures, amazing color schemes, beautifully designed tables and great back ground but when it comes to content and the quality of Financial plan they suck big time! There is nothing great about them. But clients like them because we are visual animals and we assume a clean and beautiful thing literally at face value. I do not say that all clean and beautiful financial plans are crap but most of them really are. A simple analogy is a dish you get at 5 star hotels and some authentic but not so well known eating place, the food you get at 5 star hotel will look great and there will be too much time spent on making it beautiful but at the end it can taste very average or some time even foul, but the food you get at home or some less known place may taste better and may be more healthier but then it might just look okay and not “beautiful”.

A financial planner who is independent and takes limited clients does not have time and energy to work on beautification of financial plan, he mainly works on making financial plan better and not the looks of financial plan. So if you watch a financial plan from an Independent financial planner, it might not look as beautiful as from other planners.

What to Look into a Financial Planner

You should watch out for following things in Preference

  • Competence or Knowledge
  • Confidence
  • Your level of Trust and comfort with Financial Planner
  • Frankness

What to not look into a Financial Planner

  • Promise of Returns
  • Magic (financial planner is not some magician who will fix all your problems and will make a financial plan which will try to achieve all you want)
  • Instant Performance

How much to Pay to a Financial Planner

This is a debatable topic, still let’s try to understand and find out how much do Financial Planners deserve.

Financial Planners in US and Australia gets as much as $150 to $200 per hour. (that’s close to 7.5k – 10k per hour). Financial Planners in India cannot and should not ask for that kind of money for two reasons:

  1. They will not get it 🙂
  2. FP is new in India and there is still not standard procedure or standards to create a financial plan. So what they can expect is not more than $30-$40 max per hour.

Now in India people will literally laugh if a Financial planner asks money in per hour basis, it’s just not what Indians can imagine. Imagine doctors asking per hour fees here or lawyers or anyone. We Indians like to pay one time fees or lump sum fees, that’s the model India runs on. A good financial plan takes around at least 10-12 working hours (strongly focused and distributed across several days). From that stand point a price in range of 10k – 25k looks reasonable for a Financial plan. Anyone who is charging less than Rs 10,000 is undervaluing it and working more for less money. Other point is, you have to understand that all financial planners differ from each other and the amount of detail and care they take while creating it.

Comments, Please share your views on what are the other issues you guys face/ will face while choosing a financial planner. In case you know of a good Financial Planner, feel free to share here.

Check my latest trip Pictures at Netrani Islands . I did Scubadiving , snorkeling and Tent Camping .

Top 10 tricks used by Agents for misselling financial products

Posted on by Jagoinvestor

Buyers Beware. This is the mantra one has to follow in Indian financial markets. From last many years agents and so-called “Financial Advisors” are using fancy words and tactics to lure investors and sell them inappropriate products like wrong Mutual funds, ULIPS, ULPP’s and Endowment Policies.

In this article we will see what are the common tactics used by agents and how we should handle them and demand logical explanation.

mis-seling

Note that this is not an exhaustive list and there are many more miss-selling techniques which is not covered here. Lets see them one by one.

1# High Dividends declared by Mutual funds.

This is very common tactic used by agents. Even the mutual fund companies advertise about big dividend payout to lure investors.

Investors who do not how mutual funds with dividend options work fall in the trap thinking that dividend is something extra which they get apart from growth, where as the reality is that dividend is your own money which comes back to you and then NAV goes down by that much quantity.

Have a look at Difference between Growth and Dividend option in Mutual funds

2# Premium can be stopped after the first 3 years

This is a very effective statement because every investor wants “no trap” investment option, hearing that we just have to premiums for 3 yrs and still our insurance cover and policy will keep running makes us interested in these products.

There are two wrong things here:

Firstly, ULIP premiums can be stopped even before 3 yrs, there is just lock in period of 3 yrs, even some agents don’t know that you can stop the premiums of ULIP’s anytime after 1 yr and you won’t loose 100% money.

The other thing is that advising paying premiums just for 3 yrs is wrong thing as ULIPs are long-term products and should not be used for short term. This is against the basic principle of any equity related product.

3# This fund has returned 36.6% annual return in last 4 years

Last 4-6 yrs have been extremely good for Indian markets and performance of every mutual funds, ETF or Equity linked product has been great. This single most fact has been used by agents and they have been advertising about the “great performance” of their respective ULIP’s and mutual funds.

What one has to really look at are the returns a product has provided over and above its benchmark or other peers. If Nifty has given 40% return and a mutual funds with bench mark as Nifty has given 41%, there is nothing great in this1p..

In fact its better to use Nifty ETF’s then and get 40% return without the fund manager risk and other costs associated with Mutual fund . We should also ask the agent about the performance of product in bad times and not just good times .

4# ULIPs offers guaranteed returns

This is not true! Any Unit Linked product does not come with Guaranteed returns. Agents some times just say this to attract customers and moreover their Greed! There might be the case that there is some guarantee for initial years premium or over all but then it will be so low that its not even worth considering.

A simple thumb rule is that anything beyond Bank FD returns will always carry some level of risk otherwise why will someone buy FD at all if they can get some guaranteed returns. Nothing comes free in this world, there is always some risk involved.

Watch this video and don’t get fooled by the agents selling ULIPS plan:

5# This is regarding 180% – 250% guaranteed return plan Sir.

Now a days I can see this strange thing with most of the products, that they have started giving “guaranteed returns” with first year premiums.

This has two reasons, people in India like words like “guaranteed” and “secure” especially at times when markets are doing bad, second reason is that they can use these words at the time of promoting their products, I get a lot of calls which start with “Hello sir, this call is regarding 250% guaranteed return plan sir, Can i explain it to you?”

I can sense that sense of pride in the caller’s voice clearly when they say this even though they dont know whom they are talking too.

My first question to them is “Just tell me the IRR of this policy” and then starts the process of “wait sir, let me transfer the call to my senior” and then “wait sir, Let me transfer the call to the regional manager and CEO” who have no idea what is IRR!!! Finally

6# I will give you 10% of Cash back on premiums paid.

ULIPs and an endowment plans have very high commissions in the first year [See a case of miss-selling in ULIP]. So agents lure customers by giving back some part of their commissions back, in this way they get more clients and more money overall.

Don’t fall in trap of this. Many agents also offer to pay your premiums for 1 yr so that you fall into the trap and take the policy.

7# Money doubling in three years

This is again based on past performance, ask for the average rate of return over long term and anything above 15-16% should look unrealistic. Many agents tell the illustration by taking 20% or as high as 30% as return, they will show your last 5 yrs data when this has actually happened, but its not a right thing for 2 reasons.

First reason is that as per IRDA they are supposed to show you illustration with 6% and 10%, nothing other than this. Ask the agent to explain why they are showing you anything other than 6% or 10%. The other reason is that 20% and 30% are not realistic returns from equity in very long run, you should not expect more than 12-15%.

see this article which explains what are the realistic long term returns from Equity

8# You also get Free Insurance and Tax Benefit.

“Free”, we love this word. You can see that even I have used this word at the top of the page right hand side of this page to lure visitors to subscribe to this blog. It works in most of the cases.

There is nothing called as “Free Insurance”, most of the investors do not understand how insurance works and what are the terminologies, they don’t know that there is something called as “mortality charges” which we have to pay as cost of Insurance.

Apart from this agents also stress on tax saving part which is not something which is unique to those products. We have tax savings on different products anyways.

Dont forget to grab your Free Ebook by Subscribing to this blog by Email or RSS.

9# These are most bought product in the market and have good returns.

Now this is vicious circle, ULIPs are around 70-80% of the products sold by Life insurance companies these days, the reasons are simple. They are explained by agents in such a way that things looks so rosy that customers feel its a worth buying product.

So agents pitch these products to other investors and then they feel “if everyone is doing it then it should be right thing“, far from the actual and real truth. Common sense is not common, so don’t do what others are doing just blindly, think about it yourself, evaluate it.

You should rather be doing what very less people do. Buy Term Insurance which is not even 1-2% of policies sold 🙂 .

10# Low NAV of a NFO from mutual funds

Most of the NFO’s pay very heavy commissions to agents. This is the reason agents tell investors that they should invest in this mutual funds because they will get more units. Even Investors confuse NAV of mutual funds as share price of a company.

At the end its fund performance which should matter and not NAV number, truly speaking we should request IRDA to ban publishing NAV numbers. Some agents also lure investors saying that they should buy low NAV mutual funds because they will get more units and then more dividend as dividend is paid per unit basis.

This is true but again at the end investor will not benefit as dividend is nothing but their own money.

11# Readers Contribution

Add a comment telling how agent tried miss-selling a product to you and I will add it here :). You can also share any incident small or big.

Readers Tip, How to reduce Misselling:  One of the readers “Jagbir” has suggested an excellent idea for IRDA to curb miss-selling:  As per Jagbir, “Agents must get commission only after customer feedback, If customer is not satisfied with the agent suggestion or his way of selling, they can give the feedback and then agent commission will not be paid “.

What do you guys think about this ? Please comment ..

Conclusion

India financial markets have two main issues

High commissions for agents:

Because of high commissions, agents tend to go beyond limits and start unethical selling. Apart from this lot of sales pressure, pressure of meeting targets force agents to achieve the target by hook or crook. IRDA should finally come up with some rule where they remove the commissions on the products.

Low awareness and understanding from investors:

Finance Industry has very smart people at higher level, CEO, Relationship managers, advisers and everyone. they are smart people. they understand human psychology. They know Indian public more than Indian public knows themselves. They know what words to use when and how to divert our minds, our thinking.

Why do they come up with “Guaranteed return products” when markets are low?

That the the perfect and the most right time for everyone to enter Equity, but companies know we are afraid of losing, we don’t like losses, we have lesser risk appetite and then all the Jeevan Astha and Jeevan Nishchay and other Secured products like RGF will pop up.

Most of the NFO’s will come in the bull markets and when markets are already up because that is the time we are charged up and ready to bet our home on anything, that is the time when we have to avoid those things.

So finally avoid the trap, ask questions, doubt everything!!

I would like to hear if anything like this has happened with you did some agent every tried some tactic to missell a product to you. Please share your experience and let others know what happened with you.